Bitcoin
Bitcoin Price Outlook Ahead of Powell’s Speech
Bitcoin price has been relatively stable over the past few days after volatility picked up during the weekend, pushing the price lower by more than 3%. At the time of writing, the flagship cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, was trading at $26,255.55. As it continues to dominate the crypto market, ranking 1st, its total market capitalization slightly declined over the past day to $5.12 billion. Additionally, the total volume of BTC traded over the same period slumped by more than 32%.
Economic Concerns
Data published on Tuesday showed that the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in September to 103.0, down from a revised 108.7 in August. This was its lowest level since May 2023 and marked two consecutive months of decline. The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessment of current business and labor conditions, rose slightly to 147.1 from 146.7.
The Expectations Index, which measures the consumers’ near-term prospects for business, income, and labor market conditions, dipped to 73.7 in September, down from 83.3 in the prior month. The Expectations Index fell below the crucial level of 80, which signals a recession within the next year. Consumer fears of a looming recession also ticked higher in September amid the short-term economic contraction anticipated in the first half of 2024.
Focus will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on Thursday which is likely to add volatility and create a bearish environment for traders. As such, investors need to be cautious this week when dealing with cryptocurrencies. This comes after the US Federal Reserve decided to pause its interest rate hike campaign in last week’s meeting, suggesting that another hike is due this year. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in an 83% chance of another pause in November, raising expectations for a 0.25% hike in December.
Bitcoin Price Technical Analysis
Bitcoin price has been on a downward trajectory for the past few days, dropping below the pivotal support level of $26,500. Despite several attempts, the digital asset has failed to flip the major resistance hurdle at $27,500, prompting a retraction. The prevailing conditions suggest a continuous decline in Bitcoin price, possibly breaking below the crucial support of $26,000 in the ensuing sessions.
As seen on the daily chart, the premier cryptocurrency remains below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, as well as the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 45, below the signal line and the neutral level. The Bollinger bands have narrowed over the past few days, hinting at a decline in volatility, with the upper band slightly above the EMAs.
Consequently, a breakout above the hurdle at the $26,900 level, could push the price higher toward $27,000 and subsequently $27,500. However, failure to break above the aforementioned level might pave the way for a further decline to the immediate support at $25,825.60 and potentially $25,330.
BTC Price Chart