Here is an interesting one. Take a look at the price of bitcoin as illustrated on the bitcoin price chart (taken from CoinMarketCap) below.
The chart shows the action that has been covered across so many of the major news media outlets over the last six weeks or so, with bitcoin sliding from highs at more than $20,000 a piece to current levels in and around $8000.
The 60% decline is one that has come as painful for many longer-term holders but the pain that said holders feel is no doubt insignificant as compares to that felt by anybody that picked up an exposure in or around mid December pricing and have subsequently ridden price down throughout the first half of the first quarter of this year.
Anyway, now take a look at the second chart, this one taken from Google’s Trends platform.
The chart illustrates interest over time in bitcoin, with the metric based on the frequency and volume with which people search for it through Google’s search engine. Official numbers suggest that around 60% of search traffic goes through Google but, in reality, it’s probably considerably higher than that.
Anyway, whatever the numbers, interest over time was at 12 (out of a possible 100) back during the first week of October. By the week of December 17, this had risen to 100 (so, representative of peak interest). That suggests an increase in the wider market attention of around 700% across what is essentially a fraction of bitcoin’s lifespan.
Almost immediately subsequent to this interest peaking, however, search volume fell off a cliff and currently sits at around 49, meaning we have seen a decline of around 100% from December.
So why is any of this important?
Well, it’s reasonable to assume that the uptick in attention and interest during the final quarter of last year is comprised primarily of mainstream attention as opposed to those already familiar with the space increasing the amount of times they type bitcoin and its related terms into Google.
In turn, it’s equally reasonable to assume that the subsequent downturn in interest during the first couple of months of this year is the removal of this same portion of global search volume from the picture.
So, taking these two assumptions into consideration, we can make a further assumption based on price. Specifically, that the portion of the inflowing volume that resulted in the bitcoin price running up to $20,000 and above derived primarily from the increase in mainstream speculation (as opposed to existing holders adding to their positions), at least for the main part.
What does this all mean?
We think that, at current prices, and taking into consideration the recent slight upturn we have seen in the markets, the portion of capital that flowed into bitcoin and pushed price up has now flowed out of the market, meaning balance is restored in the sense that the vast majority of the capital that now supports price derives from long-term holders as opposed to fly-by-night speculators.
In turn, we think that this level represents the level at which it’s perfectly reasonable to assume price should start turning around.
It’s unlikely that we’re going to see a run towards $20,000 short-term since that would mean the volume that entered (and then exited again) entering the market once more. However, within a six-month period, say, the traction that pushed bitcoin towards current levels during the first 6 to 8 months of 2017 could easily push BTC towards $15,000 plus between now and September 2018.
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Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Global Coin Report and/or its affiliates, employees, writers, and subcontractors are cryptocurrency investors and from time to time may or may not have holdings in some of the coins or tokens they cover. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency.
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