Have you ever heard about Elliott waves? No? Well, we’re not surprised. Even among market technical analysis specialists, they’re quite arcane. So let us tell you what they are and why they matter, and what they have to do with current predicament of Bitcoin. Just keep reading, we won’t get technical on you, only plain English.
Elliott waves are a form of technical analysis used to forecast the stock market (and, over the last decade, the crypto market as well). Using this technique requires of you to analyze a chart in such a way that you can identify a kind of event called “wave” which is something of a fluctuation in the market, and it’s supposed to reflect the psychology of the moment. According to this theory, all markets trend in five waves. Once the fifth wave hits the market, a new trend will begin. It can oppose the previous pattern or amplify it, but it will be a different one.
Was that too abstract? Yeah, we know. Let’s explain it in more practical terms: Bitcoin will go up again once the fifth Elliott wave reaches it. It’s as simple as that, according to this tool.
It sounds a bit magical or too empiric, but many technical traders use this approach all over the world to make money. The relevant question now would be, of course, is the current Bitcoin wave the fifth one? The answer is no, and we’ll explain to you why.
Bitcoin’s fifth wave is not here yet
Several analysts and YouTubers have been publishing their own view on the current situation and, for many of them, this is the final Elliott wave indeed. But we have reasons to disagree with them.
One of the “principles” you need to dominate with this technique is that everything should always be interpreted (or constructed) in the simplest possible way. That’s a problem for those who are predicting the final wave is here because they’re constructing their waves in a somehow complex form that needs a lot of justification when it should be self-evident.
Then, there’s the problem of cognitive bias (the tricks our mind plays on us at times that impair objectivity). We’re all sick of the bearish market. It’s been going down for 11 months now and, if that wasn’t bad enough, last week it became a carnage on Wednesday, and then again over the weekend. We all want for things to get better as soon as possible. And that is the problem as well.
Elliott Wave theory also states that you should never construe any scenario in a way that aligns with your wishes. Given several possible interpretations, you must always choose the one that suits your goals the worst, unless the evidence is so strong that no other explanation is possible. This avoids a cognitive trap known as “confirmation bias” which means that we believe what we want to believe, instead of what we are seeing.
In other words, when you work with Elliott Waves, you must always be sure that your own wishful thinking is not getting the best of you. Since it’s reasonable to assume that the analysts that believe in the fifth Bitcoin wave want it to arrive, they’re breaking this simple rule.
To wrap things up all we can say is that the fifth wave will arrive sooner or later. We can’t tell you when (Elliott wave theory doesn’t include any kind of reliable timing prediction), but it always comes.
Then Bitcoin will rise again, and the chances are that it will reach levels that we couldn’t possibly imagine right now. But that’s not what’s currently happening. Just in case you’re curious, the best analysts agree that we are currently riding the third Bitcoin wave, so we still have two to go.
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Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Global Coin Report and its affiliates, employees, writers, and subcontractors are cryptocurrency investors and from time to time may or may not have holdings in some of the coins or tokens they cover. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency and read our full disclaimer.
Image Courtesy of Pixabay.
Why Bitcoin Price Remains Stable Before the Expected Hike
The cryptocurrency rallied a few days back, but now, it has moved closer to 38.2% Fib level. Investors are enthusiastic that as it remains at this level for some time, and stabilize. The next move in Bitcoin price will take it to the 61.8% Fib level. This is when the hike in the price of the cryptocurrency will occur towards $4,200. However, after the surge in price, the upcoming weeks will see the Bitcoin falling swiftly to $3,000.
The truth is that if this move fails to occur, there may not be an improvement in the value of the digital currency. Also, this movement will enable the “bullish gartly pattern” we saw on the BTC/USD 4H chart to become a reality. Also, we are expecting that the Bitcoin price will decline the same way it has been recovering since early February.
Why this week’s closing price matters
Presently, Bitcoin price is still trading above what the intrinsic value is showing on larger time frames. However, we can see adequate room to accommodate short-term rallies. The price at which Bitcoin closes this week is very critical. It will be a clear indication as to how the digital currency will move in the coming weeks.
If Bitcoin closes at a price above $4,000, we are hopeful that the correction may come from early next week. On the other hand, any…
Stanford Lecturer praises XRP over Bitcoin
The world of cryptocurrencies continues to cause controversies even now, particularly when it comes to matters such as the superiority of one coin over others. According to recent reports, one student from Stanford University has stated that one of Stanford’s guest lecturers — Dr. Susan Athey — bashed the first and largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, while praising XRP.
Does guest lecturer go anti-Bitcoin?
In late February, Stanford’s student called Conner Brown came out publicly with a claim that Athey described Bitcoin’s network and protocol inaccurately, and that she also used the opportunity to make unfounded criticism. Athey, who also sits on Board of Directors at Ripple Labs — XRP’s parent company — supposedly also stated that XRP provides solutions to all issues mentioned in regards to Bitcoin.
According to Brown’s comments on the matter, the lecture in question took place over a month ago, and after attending it, he wrote an open letter to Standford, explaining the incident. In the letter, Brown claims that Athey inaccurately presented Bitcoin’s consensus protocol and overstated several issues, such as the threat of a 51% attack on the coins network, as well as Bitcoin’s mining centralization.
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The claims caused Dr. Athey to respond publicly via Twitter, stating…
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The crypto market has started seeing gains in mid-February, with Bitcoin (BTC) following the bullish trend as well. In fact, the largest coin was on its way of seeing the first positive month since July of the last year. Even though its price was struggling to permanently overcome the major resistance at $4,000, the coin kept trying, and as long as its price doesn’t drop below $3,414, this goal can still be achieved
The return of the bearish trend which briefly overtook the market on February 24th caused a lot of damage, although Bitcoin managed to remain above $3,800. Following the crash, BTC started seeing minor gains once again, indicating that the bears have withdrawn for now.
What does the future hold for BTC?
As mentioned, Bitcoin can only complete a positive month if its price remains above $3,500 until the end of February. At the time of writing, the price sits at $3,807 according to TradingView, with an increase of 0.58% in the last 24 hours. As things are right now, it is likely that BTC might succeed in doing this, as its price performed relatively well ever since January 11th, even though it remained between $3,300 and $3,700.
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