After a solid countertrend rally in July, which we anticipated and readied readers attention to of Global Coin Report, where Bitcoin generated a nearly 50% return for those whom participated in the move as well as reaching our noted measured move price objective in the 7800-8000 zone, BTC has since found the footing slippery and as a result, has now recently violated its former break-out point located at the 6900 level, which has precipitated further decline.
In our last missive,”Is The Countertrend Rally Over? “, we noted the following, “Moving forward, in order for BTC to ‘get going’ once again and resume its northern trajectory, both investors and traders may want to pay close attention to the 200 day SMA located at the 8440ish level as well as the 8510 and 9020 figures as potential overhead resistance levels to be cleared,” which did not not materialize and was a signal that the recent move may have exhausted.
We also went on to state, “Therefore, while BTC has and remains in ‘better’ technical shape than many of its brethren, and we’re not ready to officially declare that the forecasted countertrend rally is ‘Over’ just yet, we’re beginning to witness some signs that both investors/traders may need to ‘tighten’ things up and keep their positions on a tight leash”, which has since proven prescient.
With that behind us, let’s take a look at the Chart of Bitcoin to see what may be in store as we move forward.
As we can observe from the daily chart above, Bitcoin is short-term oversold and due for some price relief with BTC registering eleven (11) down days out of the past twelve (12) sessions, constituting severe oversold conditions.
Additionally, we can also see that the primary trend, which is lower, remains in effect as BTC continues to trade below all of its important moving averages (20/50/200 SMA), which portrays and unfavorable technical posture.
However, and perhaps most importantly, with Bitcoin recently having violated the 6900 level on the downside, which acted as the neckline (resistance) on its most recent inverted H&S pattern, which then turned to critical support, such level will now act as formidable resistance once again.
Moving forward, both investors/traders may want to utilize the following levels as a guide in navigating the landscape ahead.
If BTC can get itself going to the upside, which we suspect will occur in the days ahead in order to work-off the oversold conditions, the 6900 level should prove formidable short-term resistance. On the flip-side of the coin, potential short-term support resides at the 6200-6300 zone with minor support at the round 6000 figure as well as the 5700 figure providing more meaningful support.
Nonetheless, the July countertrend rally is officially over and after some short-term price relief, we suspect that Bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency landscape is in for further downside action before this bear runs its course. In essence, the bear continues to wreck havoc throughout the tape.
We remain in a primary downtrend whereby risk management is imperative, particularly for those whom are trading the short-term blips.
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Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Global Coin Report and/or its affiliates, employees, writers, and subcontractors are cryptocurrency investors and from time to time may or may not have holdings in some of the coins or tokens they cover. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency and read our full disclaimer.
Image courtesy of Pexels
Charts courtesy of tradingview.com
Why Bitcoin Price Remains Stable Before the Expected Hike
The cryptocurrency rallied a few days back, but now, it has moved closer to 38.2% Fib level. Investors are enthusiastic that as it remains at this level for some time, and stabilize. The next move in Bitcoin price will take it to the 61.8% Fib level. This is when the hike in the price of the cryptocurrency will occur towards $4,200. However, after the surge in price, the upcoming weeks will see the Bitcoin falling swiftly to $3,000.
The truth is that if this move fails to occur, there may not be an improvement in the value of the digital currency. Also, this movement will enable the “bullish gartly pattern” we saw on the BTC/USD 4H chart to become a reality. Also, we are expecting that the Bitcoin price will decline the same way it has been recovering since early February.
Why this week’s closing price matters
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Does guest lecturer go anti-Bitcoin?
In late February, Stanford’s student called Conner Brown came out publicly with a claim that Athey described Bitcoin’s network and protocol inaccurately, and that she also used the opportunity to make unfounded criticism. Athey, who also sits on Board of Directors at Ripple Labs — XRP’s parent company — supposedly also stated that XRP provides solutions to all issues mentioned in regards to Bitcoin.
According to Brown’s comments on the matter, the lecture in question took place over a month ago, and after attending it, he wrote an open letter to Standford, explaining the incident. In the letter, Brown claims that Athey inaccurately presented Bitcoin’s consensus protocol and overstated several issues, such as the threat of a 51% attack on the coins network, as well as Bitcoin’s mining centralization.
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The return of the bearish trend which briefly overtook the market on February 24th caused a lot of damage, although Bitcoin managed to remain above $3,800. Following the crash, BTC started seeing minor gains once again, indicating that the bears have withdrawn for now.
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As mentioned, Bitcoin can only complete a positive month if its price remains above $3,500 until the end of February. At the time of writing, the price sits at $3,807 according to TradingView, with an increase of 0.58% in the last 24 hours. As things are right now, it is likely that BTC might succeed in doing this, as its price performed relatively well ever since January 11th, even though it remained between $3,300 and $3,700.
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